Mainers are Warming Back up to Snowe but Huntsman Still Gets No Traction.

 Senator Olympia Snowe (Maine - R)



Public Policy Polling released a poll taken of likely GOP primary voters in Maine on Tuesday and moderate Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, who had been widely seen as likely to be ousted in a Tea Party supported primary challenge in 2012, is now polling much better.  In March, the same polling firm had Snowe losing by 25 points (58% to 33%) to a generic primary opponent.  Now Snowe is polling essentially even (47% to 46%) with an idealized primary opponent, and is out-polling her two announced Tea Party supported opponents by 45 points.  The poll results are being viewed as one indication of the diminishing influence of the Tea Party movement, at least in Maine.  (Remember that Maine's Tea Party movement actually helped elect in 2010 one of the more wacked-out Republican governors in the nation in Paul LaPage, so it was thought that Snowe was in deep Kimchi.)

Given that Maine GOP voters are seemingly trending more moderate, you would think that the most moderate candidate for the Republican GOP nomination, Jon Huntsman, would have gotten a little lift as well.  But he remains at 1% in the Maine polling, both as a first pick and as a second pick.  Here are the poll results for the presidential primary:

Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?

Michele Bachmann .........................................   5%
Herman Cain................................................... 29%
Newt Gingrich .................................................18%
Jon Huntsman.................................................    1%
Gary Johnson .................................................    1%
Ron Paul .........................................................   5%
Rick Perry .......................................................  4%
Mitt Romney....................................................  24%
Rick Santorum................................................     2%
Someone else/Not sure ..................................   11%

Q11 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate..............     33%
Might end up supporting someone else ..........     67%

Q12 Who would be your second choice for
President?

Michele Bachmann .........................................    6%
Herman Cain...................................................  13%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 19%
Jon Huntsman.................................................    1%
Gary Johnson .................................................    1%
Ron Paul .........................................................    4%
Rick Perry .......................................................  10%
Mitt Romney....................................................   11%
Rick Santorum................................................      2%
Someone else/Not sure ..................................    33%

A reader commenting at Andrew Sullivan's blog today says the problem for Huntsman is his Mormon faith.  It is suggested that the GOP can countenance one Mormon in the race, one that already had a solid run at the presidency four years ago, but not two.  I think this is wrong.  The polling recently on voters considering a candidate being of the Mormon faith as disqualifying to them in terms of electability hasn't been that wretched for the chances of Mormon politicians.  I think it is simply that Huntsman isn't far enough to the right for GOP voters. Particularly on social issues.

I don't care for it when liberals dismissively treat GOP victories as evidence of a lack of intelligence of or careful analysis by the voters. Cain is polling well in Maine, Iowa, SC and NC right now not because voters are stupidly preferring him to someone substantial like Huntsman, but because Huntsman, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry are viewed as professional politicians, and no one likes politicians right now.   Once more people learn that Cain was a professional lobbyist, an awareness that will increase with more discussions over the allegations of sexual harassment at the National Restaurant Association, his perceived status as the "outsider" candidate will quickly wane.