Thursday, October 18, 2012

Deep in the Hole! Walker yet to Create a Net Job in Wisconsin in his First Term

Big Hole in the Ground in the UK.

I have previously (ad nauseum) posted about the Walker Administration's vacillation between two different Bureau of Labor Statistics' job data surveys as providing the most appropriate scoring matrix for the Governor's promise to the citizens of Wisconsin to create 250,000 new private sector jobs in his first term in office. Originally the matrix the Governor was touting was the BLS' Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of jobs.  When earlier this year that survey proved to be unhelpful in demonstrating any measurable improvement in jobs in Wisconsin, the Governor's staff began to rely on the BLS' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), data that only comes out 6 months after the period of data being reported. (CES data comes out monthly and shows the survey results from the previous month.) 

The Department of Workforce Development issued the September job numbers based on the CES survey today.  Once again its press release doubled down on the QCEW being the far more reliable measurement:
The most accurate count of jobs data, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), is based on a census of approximately 96 percent of Wisconsin employers. DWD last month submitted unemployment insurance (UI) records for the first three months of 2012 to the federal government. The federal government will incorporate the data in its next QCEW release covering the first quarter of 2012 for all states.
Now we are assured that the Governor intends to use the QCEW data to score his job creation promise.  So we have an accepted matrix.  That's the good news.  No more waffling around on the data set to use.  Here is the bad news:  Starting with the December 31, 2010 QCEW data for private job employment, and using the most current QCEW data for March 31, 2012, the State of Wisconsin has lost a net of 19,255 private sector jobs in the Governor's first term.   That leaves the Governor with 269,255  net private sector jobs to create in Wisconsin from March 2012 to December 2014.   We need to see over 8,000 net new private sector jobs created per month for the final 33 months (beginning in March of this year) of the Governor's term.   If that were an event listed on Intrade I am guessing it would probably cost you $9.99 a share.

Not only is the Governor in the hole on job creation but the QCEW also shows that average weekly wages for  Wisconsin workers in the private sector have declined by $13.00 per week from December 2010 through March 31, 2012.  That's $676.00 per year.

You can double-check my accuracy on the data at this page of the BLS.  Make sure you enter the relevant quarter from which you wish to see data, and enter "all industries" and "private" ownership on Map Series "No. of Employed."

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